Is a UK reaching coffee emporium superfluity point?

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At 10am a morning rush is already over during a internal Starbucks and Costa. Only Nero’s has a queue, and they’re all BBC staff.

Thanks to a mountainous series of coffee shops on UK High Streets, we occasionally have to go distant for a caffeine fix.

But according to investment bank Citigroup it is time a large brands woke adult and smelled a coffee.

We are about to strech superfluity indicate for coffee shops, contend analysts, with enlargement stalling within 5 years.

Citigroup researchers are suggesting that investors holding shares in Costa’s owners Whitbread might wish to have a rethink.

Citi predicts usually “four to 5 years constructional enlargement sojourn in a UK coffee market”.

In other words, in 5 years’ time Costa won’t be opening new shops during a breakneck speed of new years. It might not be opening any during all – since we’ll have enough.

On many of a UK’s streets, it already feels as yet there are copiousness of places to collect adult a pick-me-up.

Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in a UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to a large chains, such as Starbucks, Nero’s and Costa, according to coffee marketplace researchers Allegra.

By a finish of final year there were some-more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number.

According to Allegra, we devour around 2.3 billion cups of coffee per year in stores (or around 45 cups per adult per year).

How many are there?

Costa 1,972

Starbucks Coffee 807

Caffe Nero 548

Wild Bean Cafe 292


Pumpkin 45

BB’s Coffee Muffins39

ShakeAway 37

Coffee Republic 32

AMT Coffee 32

Source: The Local Data Company

Food and water

Cyril Lavenant, Foodservice Director UK during a NPD Group, another marketplace researcher, thinks we might be even closer to coffee emporium limit ability than Citi’s analysts suggest.

“Whether it will be in two, three, 4 or 5 years, we agree, a marketplace will be saturated. There won’t be most some-more space for emporium expansion,” he says.

“Already there’s outrageous foe in a coffee marketplace – it’s not usually a large coffee shops, it’s everybody from fast-food to bakeries – everybody is charity coffee.”

He thinks a combined vigour should be concentrating minds during Starbucks, Costa and Nero HQs.

“You need to be different. You need to mount out from a crowd, make consumers feel like yours is a place to go, as frequently as possible.”

He suggests cafes charity improved food, or a improved atmosphere, or even smart new alternatives such as dilettante waters, might finish adult removing a top hand.

More hubs than pubs

But not everybody agrees we’re reaching arise coffee shop.

Jeffrey Young, owner of Allegra, has analysed coffee and coffee emporium trends for a past twenty years. He says that, overall, there will be many some-more coffee shops in about 5 years.

“There’s one elemental driver, that’s civic densities,” he argues.

“This is function all over a world. People are relocating behind to cities. Cities are apropos some-more vertical. Every bureau retard of a certain distance can support a coffee shop.

“The coffee emporium becomes a amicable heart where people socialise, work, accommodate brushwood dates… there are so many reasons, useful functions for a coffee emporium in further to a enterprise to have a coffee.”

Allegra forecasts there will be 32,000 coffee shops in a UK by 2025, and says they’ll outnumber pubs by 2030.

But he also thinks a large brands need to watch out for a arise of eccentric coffee shops.

“The bondage have work to do,” he says. “They need to be on their guard.”

They might have profitable skill portfolios and constant followings, though a bondage could still be challenged, he says, by “artisanal craft” coffee shops charity drinks done with some-more worldly equipment, from some-more costly mixture and an atmosphere to match.

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