A hundred anticipation football facts


Fantasy Now: 5 Bonus Facts

In further to his 100 contribution column, Matthew Berry gives we 5 reward contribution to cruise before drafting in 2014.Tags: Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals, Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs, Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders, Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks, Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals, Fantasy NFL, Matthew Berry, Fantasy Now, 100 FactsFantasy Now: 5 Bonus Facts

The problem, if we am being honest, is me.

The Talented Mr. Roto

I’m to blame. My fault. My bad, as a kids used to say.

Not usually me, mind you. There are a lot of us. But if we wish to indicate your digital finger during someone, demeanour right here. It’s on me. we usually ask that we use correct spelling in a comments.

The emanate during hand, of course, is information. Specifically, anticipation football information. There are gobs of it. Enormous plateau delivered daily to whatever device we have, wherever we are. Twitter and nonstop tickers scrolling by and content alerts from your 15 opposite apps. At a Worldwide Leader, we have people examining any dropback, any two-tight finish set, any hamstring tweak, any coach’s press conference. Is there a man in your joining who doesn’t follow Adam or Mort? Exactly. You don’t even need me to use their full names to know whom I’m articulate about.

But behind when anticipation football started, there was no internet, no mobile phones, no violation alerts … West Coast guys had to wait until Wednesday to measure their games by palm since a Monday Night diversion finished too late to make a journal (if we don’t know what that is, ask your dad). There were no websites to check your stats and, honestly … no guys like me.

That’s what we meant when we contend we am to blame. Before we played a diversion online, before there was a 24-hour news cycle, before there was ever such a thing as a anticipation football analyst, removing information indeed meant carrying an advantage. Which receiver a QB likes, that fetter we wish for your timber regulating back, whose gonna get a goal-line looks. If we didn’t live in that NFL team’s market, that info was tough to get.

That is no longer an issue. Everything we could ever wish to know is available. Need to know Tom Brady‘s pet’s name? (It’s a array longhorn named Lua). How about what Jamaal Charles drives? (It’s a Lamborghini Gallardo LP-550 2). Or even what Vincent Jackson usually had for lunch? (Tuna tartare — it was delicious). There is no square of information we can’t find out and find out quickly. And that’s before we even get to a stats. Stats about players and teams and trends. Stats about situations and schemes, and stats about that stats are some-more statistically applicable than other stats.

Getting intel is no longer a concern. There’s no advantage since everybody has entrance to a same information. If we are in any kind of genuine joining in that people are profitable attention, a usually advantage competence be a faster Internet tie or a softened smartphone to make a discerning collect adult in a failing seconds before diversion time. Otherwise, it’s 10 or 12 guys looking during all a same names, numbers and rankings.

The pivotal to winning, then, is parsing that data. Figuring out what to trust and what to ignore. Because, as I’ll be a initial to tell we any season, stats can contend anything we wish them to.

Consider a box of these dual quarterbacks.

“QB1″ was a anticipation timber final year. He finished as a top-10 quarterback and had some-more 30-point games than any quarterback not named Peyton or Drew. In fact, according to Tristan H. Cockcroft’s 2013 coherence rankings, those dual quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees) were a usually dual who had some-more “stud” games than this guy. (“Stud” being tangible as a QB who was top-two during his position for a week). His attempts, completions, touchdowns, yards, QB rating and QBR have softened any year he’s been in a league. He has one of a many gifted receiving corps around, including a heading far-reaching receiver in finish section locate commission (among competent wideouts). Top 10 in a NFL in pass attempts final year, he’s a personality of a high-octane offense that was sixth in a joining in sum points. And he has started any diversion of his career, so it’s easy to see since this 4,000-yard passer was a high breeze pick. He’s entrance off his best veteran year ever, and deliberation he’s still sincerely young, a best is nonetheless to come. Draft him high, and float a wave.

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On a other hand, “QB2″ is being drafted good outward a tip 10 this year, and it’s no startle why. Per Tristan’s same coherence rankings, Geno Smith, Eli Manning and Chad Henne were a usually quarterbacks who were “stiffs” some-more mostly final season. (“Stiff” being tangible as someone who ranked among a misfortune during his position, so creation roughly any waiver handle choice a softened choice.) His interceptions have increasing any year he has been in a league, his execution commission decreased from a prior season, and his QBR was usually 4 tenths of a indicate softened than Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s. we repeat: Ryan Fitzpatrick. It’s not usually anticipation owners who have questions about this quarterback. His possess group hasn’t sealed him to an prolongation yet, and in fact, he will be a giveaway representative after this season. Considering how QB-starved a NFL is, it speaks volumes that his group is peaceful to let him walk. With a fifth many interceptions in a NFL final year, it’s not startling his group usually hired a new descent coordinator famous for regulating a ball; in his latest pursuit as a playcaller, this manager was tip 4 in a NFL in rush attempts and rush yards. Hand a turn off and don’t remove this for us, they seem to be saying. Something we don’t wish them to contend about your quarterback as a anticipation owner. Look elsewhere.

Now, all we wrote about for any actor is 100 percent true. So tell me … that QB do we want?

Before we answer, we should know that both quarterbacks are Andy Dalton.

Yeah.

You see, we can speak adult or speak down anyone; we usually have to select a right stats for a job. Or usually ask John Parolin and Zach Rodgers of ESPN Stats Information to get me a right numbers for a job, as we did during many opposite points while essay this column. They are both stats studs. Everything you’re about to review is heavily researched and suspicion out — a 100 percent true, can’t be argued with, entirely vetted fact.

But they’re usually some of a facts. The contribution that support whatever opinion we have of a player. Listen, there’s unequivocally tiny in this universe that we am good at, though one thing during that we am truly fantastic? Manipulating stats to tell a story we wish to tell. For instance, in a tiny bit I’m going to use some Scott Linehan stats to speak adult Tony Romo‘s prospects. When we do, we will conveniently leave out a not unequivocally considerable numbers from Matthew Stafford‘s initial dual seasons and a deteriorate Linehan was pursuit plays for Gus Frerotte.

I’m going to do that since Stafford’s initial dual years were harmed by injury, and Gus Frerotte wasn’t unequivocally good. Caling a lot of flitting plays does no good if a man flitting can’t make a throws. So I’ll leave those stats out since we don’t consider they are applicable (or helpful) to a indicate I’m perplexing to lead we to, that is that Scott Linehan is going to assistance Tony Romo have top-10 anticipation numbers this year.

If you’re carrying a bit of deja vu, it’s since we make this same admission during a tip of this mainstay any year. we wish to be guileless about everything, so we happily patrolman to perplexing to manipulate we since we feel it’s important. Extremely important. Throughout this preseason, we will have large analysts give we all sorts of reasons to breeze this man or equivocate that one, so we wish we to be wakeful that any stat thrown during we is unequivocally usually contemplative of an opinion. Your job? Figure out that analysts we trust and whose meditative aligns with yours, doubt everybody and all we hear, take it all in, and afterwards make your possess call.

Ultimately, that’s all any of us is doing: holding a tiny square of a large design and creation a call.

Everything that follows is totally accurate. Some is about players, some about tendencies, and not a damn bit of it tells a whole story.

These are 100 contribution we need to know before we draft. What we do with them is adult to you.

1. Over a past dual seasons, when Rob Gronkowski is off a field, Tom Brady’s execution commission is 59, his yards per try is 6.8, and he has a 26-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

2. Over a past dual years, when Rob Gronkowski has played, Tom Brady completes 65 percent of his passes and has 7.7 yards per try and a 33-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

3. Last year, Patriots far-reaching receivers were tackled during a 1-yard line 8 times.

4. That was 3 some-more times than any other team.

5. If we regression that to a joining normal (3.3), Tom Brady would have had 4 additional touchdown passes and would have finished as a eighth best anticipation QB.

6. Last year, usually one quarterback had some-more drops from his pass-catchers than Tom Brady.

7. The quarterback who had some-more passes forsaken than Tom Brady? Matthew Stafford. Detroit had 46 drops final deteriorate — 10 some-more than any other team.

8. Those 46 drops accounted for 7.5 percent of Detroit’s sum targets, that is also tip in a NFL.

9. Last year, Golden Tate was targeted 94 times.

10. And had dual drops. Two.

11. With Scott Linehan pursuit plays as his descent coordinator from 2002 to 2004, no quarterback had some-more anticipation points than Dante Culpepper’s 888.

12. With Scott Linehan pursuit plays as his descent coordinator from 2011 to 2013, usually 4 quarterbacks had some-more anticipation points than Matthew Stafford’s 863.

13. In 2014, Scott Linehan will call plays for Tony Romo, who is now being drafted outward a tip 10 during QB.

14. Matt Ryan was underneath vigour on 154 pass attempts final season.

15. That was a many in a NFL and 31 some-more than a subsequent QB.

16. Prior to final season, Ryan had never attempted some-more than 94 passes underneath pressure.

17. This offseason, a Falcons drafted RT Jake Matthews in a initial round, sum Jon Asamoah from Kansas City, got Sam Baker behind from damage and hired Mike Tice as a descent line coach.

18. During a initial 5 weeks of a past deteriorate (the usually time Julio Jones and Roddy White were on a margin together), Ryan was sixth among QBs in anticipation points.

19. On passes of 15 yards or more, when targeting Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston was 23-of-41 (56.1 percent) and averaged 16.5 yards per attempt.

20. Kelvin Benjamin had 8 touchdown receptions of 15 or some-more yards, that tied for a many of any actor from an involuntary subordinate conference.

21. During Cam Newton‘s career, Panthers far-reaching receivers have had a seventh deepest normal aim stretch in a league.

22. Per Pro Football Focus, Steve Smith‘s locate commission of 62.1 was 52nd among far-reaching receivers this past season.

23. If Cam Newton does not finish this year as a tip 4 anticipation quarterback, it will be a initial time in his career that he fails to do so.

24. Including playoffs, but Michael Crabtree in a lineup, Colin Kaepernick has a 66.6 QBR (out of 100), 7.5 yards per attempt, a execution commission of 56 and an 8.0 pouch percentage.

25. Including playoffs, with Michael Crabtree in a lineup, Colin Kaepernick has a 75.5 QBR, 7.8 yards per attempt, a 59.4 execution commission and a 5.5 pouch percentage.

26. If we mix a 2013 anticipation points of Jay Cutler and Josh McCown, a Bears combo QB was a third tip scoring QB.

27. Prior to removing harmed in a Week 7 diversion opposite Washington, Jay Cutler was tied for sixth in sum anticipation points among quarterbacks.

28. Based on 2013 shell percentage, Jay Cutler and a Bears will face a slightest blitz-heavy report (28.7 percent) in a NFL.

29. Jay Cutler’s Total QBR of 75.0 opposite 4 or fewer rushers was sixth best in a NFL this past season.

30. Against additional pressure, Cutler’s QBR is 57.1, 16th-best in a NFL.

31. In 5 of his 6 years as an descent coordinator, Kyle Shanahan’s teams have been ninth or softened in pass attempts.

32. In dual years in a SEC, Johnny Manziel averaged 3,910 flitting yards and 32 touchdowns per year. He finished 73.5 percent of his passes from a pocket.

33. Manziel also averaged 1,085 yards rushing and 15 rushing touchdowns.

34. In Cam Newton’s final deteriorate opposite a SEC, he threw for 2,854 yards and 30 TD. He ran for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns.

35. If we scored Newton’s final deteriorate in ESPN customary anticipation points, he would have averaged 35.8 per game.

36. And Johnny Manziel would have averaged 37.2.

37. Over a past 5 years, New York Giants regulating backs have a second many rushing touchdowns (74) and a 11th many rushing yards (8,337) among NFL corps.

38. Over that span, a Giants have run a turn on 55 percent of their plays from inside a 10-yard line, a seventh tip rate in a NFL.

39. Rashad Jennings is now being drafted outward a tip 20 of regulating backs.

40. At a finish of 2012, there were 4 players with active streaks of during slightest 3 seasons of 250-plus rushes: Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice and Arian Foster.

41. Jackson, Johnson and Rice all had a lowest yards per lift of their careers, and Foster had a lowest per-game rushing normal of his career in 2013.

42. Of those four, usually Chris Johnson played all 16 games.

43. Since 2001, there have been 47 instances of a actor entrance off 3 true seasons of 250-plus rushes. The normal anticipation outlay for those 47 a following deteriorate was 137.9 points, and that includes 6 seasons of LaDainian Tomlinson.

44. If we take Tomlinson out, that series dives to 118 points per season.

45. Last year, 118 points from a regulating behind ranked 23rd among a position.

46. Heading into a 2014 season, Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore (plus a aforementioned Chris Johnson) have an active strain of 3 true seasons with during slightest 250 rushes.

47. More Lynch: Since his initial diversion with Seattle (during a 2010 season) and including postseason games, Lynch has a many carries in a NFL and 53 some-more than second-place Ray Rice.

48. Last year, 79 percent of Knowshon Moreno‘s runs came with 6 or fewer group in a box.

49. Broncos regulating backs sum for 18 touchdowns in a 2013 unchanging season.

50. That enclosed 14 rushing touchdowns inside a opponents’ 10-yard line, good for second in a NFL.

51. Eight of those touchdowns and 13 of a 18 touchdowns were by Knowshon Moreno, now of a Miami Dolphins.

52. In a second half of final season, Montee Ball was fourth in a NFL in yards after hit per rush (2.55).

53. Over a past 3 seasons, a New Orleans Saints have targeted regulating backs 571 times.

54. That’s a many in a NFL and 73 some-more regulating behind targets than a subsequent team.

55. Among New Orleans Saints regulating backs final year, Darren Sproles had 71 receptions on 89 targets, Mark Ingram had seven, Travis Cadet had two, and Khiry Robinson had zero.

56. And Pierre Thomas had 77 receptions on 84 targets.

57. All of a above regulating backs will be behind with a New Orleans Saints.

58. Except Darren Sproles.

59. An ESPN Stats Information investigate of regulating behind anticipation prolongation from 2001 to 2013, over a reputed five-year length of a rookie agreement and regulating a smallest of 100 rushes to qualify, shows that on normal a many prolific deteriorate is a third year.

60. Third-year regulating backs averaged 150 anticipation points, many of any of a stream rookie agreement years.

61. Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and Lamar Miller are among a important third-year backs this season.

62. In 2009 — his third year — Adrian Peterson held a career-high 43 balls and had a second tip scoring anticipation deteriorate of his career.

63. In 2012, Adrian Peterson held 40 balls, a second tip in his career and a usually other time he had 40 or some-more receptions in a year. It was a best anticipation deteriorate of his career.

64. He played all 16 games in both 2009 and 2012, something he has finished usually 3 times in 7 NFL seasons.

65. In Norv Turner’s final 3 seasons with a Chargers, they ranked second in a NFL in targets and receptions by regulating backs, second usually to a Saints.

66. Over a past 3 years, among regulating backs with during slightest 175 rushes, usually 3 regulating backs have a aloft yards after hit per rush than … Toby Gerhart.

67. From 2010 to 2011, usually 3 teams in a NFL had some-more rushing attempts or some-more rushing touchdowns, and no group in a NFL had some-more rushing yards than a Oakland Raiders, who had Hue Jackson initial as descent coordinator and afterwards conduct coach.

68. Last year, there was usually one regulating behind in a NFL who had during slightest 15 red section opportunities (rushes and targets) but scoring a touchdown: C.J. Spiller.

69. Meanwhile, there was usually one regulating behind with during slightest 15 red section opportunities to modify during slightest one third of them for touchdowns: Donald Brown. He was 6 for 18 (33 percent).

70. More red zone: Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead converted usually 13 of 71 opportunities in a red section (18 percent).

71. Last year, Dez Bryant was tackled inside a 5-yard line 7 times, many in a NFL.

72. If Dez had scored on 3 of those plays, he still would have been tied for a seventh many plays being tackled inside a 5.

73. But he would have tied Calvin Johnson in anticipation points.

74. During a second half of final season, usually Josh Gordon had some-more anticipation points among far-reaching receivers than … Antonio Brown.

75. Among Steelers wideouts final year, Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery sum for 16 receiving touchdowns.

76. With Emmanuel Sanders now personification for a Broncos and Jerricho Cotchery now personification for a Panthers, a remaining Steelers with a many receiving touchdowns after Antonio Brown final year are Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, Will Johnson and Derek Moye. They any had one.

77. In Joe Flacco’s initial 5 NFL seasons, he finished 39 percent of low (15-plus yards) passes. He averaged 9.4 low touchdowns to usually 4 low interceptions.

78. Last season, Joe Flacco finished usually 28 percent of low passes, with usually 3 low touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

79. Last season, Torrey Smith set career highs in targets, receptions and yards on low throws … and nonetheless had 0 low touchdowns.

80. Torrey Smith had during slightest 5 low touchdowns in both of his initial dual NFL seasons.

81. If Torrey Smith had had usually 3 low touchdowns final year, he would’ve tied Pierre Garcon in anticipation points (14th).

82. This outlines a third uninterrupted deteriorate we have talked adult Torrey Smith. we competence have a problem.

83. Only Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall had some-more touchdown catches on finish section throws than … Marvin Jones, who was 9 for 9.

84. Jones was a usually actor in a joining with a ideal locate commission on finish section throws (minimum 5). A.J. Green, incidentally, was 7-for-23.

85. In 2012, 6-foot-3, 225-pound Josh Gordon’s rookie year, he held 53.2 percent of his targets, averaged 6.0 yards after locate per accepting and averaged 18.8 targets per touchdown reception.

86. In 2013, 6-foot-2, 220-pound Cordarrelle Patterson‘s rookie year, he held 60 percent of his targets, averaged 6.2 yards after locate per accepting and averaged 18.8 targets per touchdown reception.

87. During a final 5 weeks of a past season, Cordarrelle Patterson was tied with Demaryius Thomas and A.J. Green for fourth in anticipation points among far-reaching receivers.

88. Last year, Josh Gordon’s descent coordinator was Norv Turner. This year, Norv Turner is a descent coordinator for Cordarrelle Patterson’s Vikings.

89. Over a final 8 weeks of a season, usually 4 far-reaching receivers had some-more receptions than Kendall Wright‘s 51: Pierre Garcon, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Andre Johnson.

90. Wright held 67.1 percent of his targets over that span, fourth among a 31 wideouts who had during slightest 50 targets.

91. Only 9 far-reaching receivers had during slightest 90 receptions final year. Eight of them had during slightest 5 touchdowns, with an a normal of 9 scores per player. The ninth, Kendall Wright, had two.

92. Give Kendall Wright 5 sum touchdowns instead of dual (and assume a 3 touchdowns are during slightest a sum of 10 yards combined), and he’s a top-20 far-reaching receiver tied with T.Y. Hilton and Torrey Smith.

93. Over a second half of a past season, usually Jimmy Graham had some-more parsimonious finish targets than … Greg Olsen.

94. After Olsen, a stream Panther with a many receptions final year is Mike Tolbert, with 27.

95. Since 2007, a tip parsimonious finish in Norv Turner’s offense has never scored fewer than 7 touchdowns and usually once has depressed brief of 700 yards. This year, Norv’s tip parsimonious finish is 6-foot-6 Kyle Rudolph.

96. From 2006 to 2013, usually 4 teams targeted their parsimonious finish some-more than a Houston Texans, coached by Gary Kubiak.

97. Kubiak is now pursuit a plays for a Baltimore Ravens and their parsimonious end, Dennis Pitta.

98. Vernon Davis‘s touchdown totals a past 4 years, counting behind from 2013, are 13, 5, 6 and 7.

99. Last year, Davis was 14th among parsimonious ends in targets, with usually 3 some-more than Scott Chandler. He was tied for 14th in receptions among parsimonious ends as well.

100. Once Michael Crabtree came behind and including a postseason, here is a 49ers target-receptions-yardage placement over 8 games: Anquan Boldin held 49 of 74 passes for 682 yards, Crabtree held 34 of 61 for 487 yards, and Davis was singular to 19 catches on 37 targets for 281 yards.


Matthew Berry | email

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