2018 Super Bowl odds, picks: Here's because Eagles will kick Patriots by double digits

The New England Patriots have a prolonged and storied story of formulating play in a Super Bowl, with their largest domain of feat or improved in any of their 7 prior appearances entrance opposite a Falcons final year, in a initial Super Bowl to ever go to overtime, and one of a 5 best Super Bowls in NFL history

Super Bowl LII will finish that streak, and not since a Patriots win big, though since a Eagles will win in convincing fashion.

So that side of a Super Bowl line do we need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see that side of Patriots-Eagles we need to burst on, and what X-factor determines a outcome, all from a Vegas fable who’s 9-3 on Eagles’ games.

The usually concerning thing about this prediction, to me, is a hex factor. we unequivocally do trust a Eagles are a higher group to a Patriots. New England has a corner during manager — Doug Pederson and Co. have been good and merit credit, though Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick. Any evidence to a discordant is futile. The Pats have a corner during quarterback too: sorry, Nick Foles, though something something Tom Brady. 

When we demeanour during a rest of a roster, however — and Pete Prisco did a good pursuit of that here on CBSSports.com — it’s transparent outward of Brady and Rob Gronkowski, still not privileged to play though set to play if we locate my drift, a Eagles have a higher roster. It mostly happens on invulnerability and mostly on a defensive line, with Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Chris Long and Derek Barnett combining a revolution that can't be matched in football right now.

If a Eagles win, it will be on their strengths and their strengths are rushing a passer and pulsation a rock. The Eagles are earthy adult front on both sides of a ball, and have similarities to a 2011 Giants group that kick a Patriots in a Super Bowl. Philly can send call after call of pass rushers, and doubling a man like Cox creates an emanate for other one-on-one matchups. 

New England will need to run a ton of plays to wear out this defense, eating adult little chunks of yardage and gripping a round moving, watchful for a impulse to strike down a field. It happened in a second half opposite a Falcons final year; anything goes after halftime, with Belichick coaching, since he’s so good during creation adjustments. 

But here’s how we consider it plays out: a Eagles implement a heavy-pressure invulnerability to get Brady off his mark early and minimize a ability of New England to chuck down a field. Without Julian Edelman in a game, a Pats can’t eat adult utterly as most short-yardage stuff, nonetheless Danny Amendola is a opposite animal in a playoffs and nonetheless Dion Lewis/James White are good substitutions, Philly was good opposite pass-catching backs this year (10th by DVOA).

Good fitness interlude Tom Brady, though this is an Eagles group that can do it formed on a defensive personnel. 

If that happens early — and a Patriots have never scored an descent indicate in a initial entertain of a Super Bowl mind we — a Eagles can conflict offensively on their finish with run-pass options a Pats could onslaught to defend. Stephon Gilmore has stepped adult down a stretch, though Alshon Jeffery can win a miscarry battle, and Torrey Smith is a margin stretcher. Nelson Agholar sensitively had a extensive deteriorate and we haven’t even mentioned Zach Ertz. This is an offense able of severe teams down a field; we don’t know if Doug Pederson will be assertive with Nick Foles early, though we don’t consider he will wish to play it conservatively either. Getting Foles determined early and holding some shots down a margin has been a concentration this postseason, since it gives him a comfort turn in a slot and keeps defenses honest. Let him wing one to Smith down a sideline if he gets a good coverage look. 

So let’s contend a Eagles get up, that is not improbable for a Super Bowl involving a Patriots. Perhaps we remember 28-3? The disproportion in this Eagles group and a patrol like final year’s Falcons is Philly is built to play from ahead. Lots of teams are improved when they’re winning, though a Eagles specific strengths concede them to put teams away. This was a box before Carson Wentz became an MVP candidate, during a MVP widen and even when Wentz got hurt. We saw it final week in a NFC Championship Game opposite a Vikings — Philly mauled adult front on defense, got vigour on Case Keenum, combined a turnover, got a lead and afterwards got assertive on offense. 

When they had a lead, Pederson remained aggressive, though he also leaned on his downhill run game, featuring dual bruising, earthy backs in Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount, to retaliate a opponents, warp time and digest a game. With a lead, a defensive line can pin a ears behind and get after a quarterback who will be flitting on some-more plays than not. 

It’s not a new formula, it only happens to be a regulation that works really good with a construction of this Eagles roster. 

And we consider it’s going to work in a Super Bowl. Betting opposite a Pats isn’t a essential endeavor, and Lord knows I’ve been wrong about some Super Bowl outcomes before (although final year’s Falcons 28, Patriots 27 call was flattering close…). The Eagles could come out and be overmatched. Brady could play another Game of His Life™ en track to giving a Patriots another Super Bowl. He tends to uncover adult on a biggest theatre and picking him to remove typically backfires. Philly has weaknesses a Patriots can expose. This only feels like a strengths are going to be a problem for New England and we could see Philly conduct to run divided with Super Bowl LII.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Patriots 17

Super Bowl MVP: Fletcher Cox

Get some-more picks from CBSSports.com’s Pete PriscoJohn Breech and Ryan Wilson.  

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